Win Rate Calculator With
Expectancy and Kelly

A high win rate only tells part of the story. Check what each trade earns on average, then see how losing streaks could affect your account.

Equity Curve SimulationLive

Median10th to 90th Percentile30 Paths

Simulated, not a prediction. Independent trades with fixed odds and fee-adjusted payouts; each trade risks a fraction of the current balance. The band and median are calculated at each trade from 30 seeded paths, not confidence guarantees.

Expectancy per Trade

+$80.00

+0.8R per trade, after fees

Break-Even Win Rate

25.00%

After fees

Your Edge

+20 pp

Win rate minus break-even, percentage points

Kelly Fraction

26.67%

Half Kelly: 13.33%. A model, not a risk limit.

Profit Factor

2.45

Expected net winning dollars / net losing dollars

Expected Longest Losing Streak

6.9 losses

Average longest run, not a maximum

Risk to Reward

1 : 3.00

Risk 1 to earn the displayed multiple, after fees

At 45% wins and a risk to reward of 1 : 3.00, you make about $80.00 a trade on average. You'd break even at 25.00%.

Positive expectancy still allows long losing streaks. Kelly assumes known odds and is not a recommended position size.

Losing Streak Odds Over 100 trades
Losses in a Row	Chance of at Least One	Drawdown
3	over 99.9%	2.97%
5	92.0%	4.90%
8	30.7%	7.73%
10	10.1%	9.56%
12	3.1%	11.36%

Each probability counts a streak of that length or longer, anywhere in the sample. Drawdown compounds your chosen risk. It isn't a full risk of ruin calculation.

How To Use

1Use Your Journal

Enter your win rate and average win and loss. Choose dollars or R multiples.

2Include Your Costs

Add the total fee per trade. Check your exchange's fee page for your actual costs.

3Stress Test the Risk

Set your trade count and account risk. Read the losing streak table alongside the simulated paths.

4Save Your Setup

Copy a shareable link, download the input and result CSV, or save the chart as a PNG.

Worked Example

Win 45% of trades, earn $300 on a win, and lose $100 on a loss, with no fees. Your expectancy is $80.00 per trade (+0.8R). You break even at 25.00% wins. These example numbers stay fixed as you explore your own setup.

The Formula

W = win rate / 100 Net win = average win - fee per trade Net loss = average loss + fee per trade R = net win / net loss Break-even = 1 / (1 + R) Expectancy = W x avg win - (1 - W) x avg loss After fees: W x net win - (1 - W) x net loss Kelly = W - (1 - W) / R Half Kelly = Kelly / 2 Streak probability = exact dynamic programming Tested against brute force and a 200,000-run simulation

This Kelly criterion calculator uses Kelly's 1956 formula. The shared formula tests cover expectancy and losing-streak probability. Streak probability is exact for independent trades with fixed odds, tested against brute-force enumeration and a 200,000-run simulation. The simulated equity paths are illustrations; the table uses exact probabilities.

If fees consume the average win, the calculator shows Impossible for break-even and No edge for Kelly. A profitable result is then impossible with these inputs.

Win Rate, Expectancy, and Kelly FAQ

What Is a Good Win Rate?

There's no single good win rate. A strategy that wins 40% of trades can have a positive expectancy if each win is three times each loss. Include fees and use a large, representative trade sample.

How Do Win Rate and Risk to Reward Work Together?

Bigger wins lower the win rate needed to break even. With a 1 : 3 risk to reward setup, you need 25% wins before fees. At 1 : 1, you need 50%. This calculator adjusts the ratio and break-even rate for your fee per trade.

What Is Expectancy?

Expectancy is the average gain or loss per trade implied by your win rate, average win, and average loss. It subtracts your fee on every trade. Positive expectancy doesn't mean the next trade or even the next 100 trades will be profitable.

What Is the Kelly Criterion and Why Do Traders Use Half Kelly?

Kelly estimates the fraction to risk for maximum long-run growth in a simplified model with known, fixed win odds and payouts. Half Kelly uses half that fraction to reduce swings and sensitivity to estimation errors. Real trading odds change, so neither fraction is a personal risk recommendation. A zero or negative Kelly fraction says don't bet.

How Likely Is a Long Losing Streak?

The odds depend on your loss rate and number of trades. The table gives the chance of at least one streak of the stated length or longer, assuming independent trades with a fixed win rate. It uses exact dynamic programming, tested against brute-force enumeration and a 200,000-run simulation. Correlated losses can make real streaks worse.

How Much Should I Risk per Trade?

Choose a risk you can withstand through a long losing streak. At 1% of the remaining balance per trade, 10 straight losses cause about a 9.56% drawdown. The table shows how your chosen risk compounds. It doesn't calculate a full risk of ruin probability, which also needs a defined ruin threshold and more assumptions.

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Five free tools on the same tested math. Each one draws your trade on a live chart as you type.

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Net profit and ROE, spot or futures
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Example result+$2,466.25

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Every leverage from 2x to 125x

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Is my strategy actually making money, and how much can I bet?

Expectancy per trade and break-even win rate
Kelly fraction and profit factor
Odds of a long losing streak

Example result+$80.00

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What's my real average after every buy, and where do I break even?

Average cost per coin, fees included
Break-even and profit at today's price
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Trade the Plan With Data's Alpha Circle

Every call in the Discord comes with an entry, targets and a stop, so you can run it through these calculators in seconds. Every take-profit and stop-loss gets published weekly.

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